The Long Rhyme of Rome
Western society is in rapid decline. Historical parallels can give us the gift of hindsight to show us why, if this can be fixed, and by whom.
Comparing America to Rome might seem played out, but it’s not. The parallels ring ever true of the stagnating end of the Republic period that led to the rise of the Gracchi brothers, to Marius, to Sulla, to Gaius Julius Caesar, and finally to Augustus. I don’t list these names to try and puff up some surface-level book-smarts, but to already prime the reader in seeing that the process of societal regeneration is just that; a process. Not a moment.
The Past
Rome was a city that hated kings on the western banks of a tribal peninsula which grew rapidly in wealth and power initially due to trade. They took much of their culture and language from the former dominant power in the region which was in decline, the Etruscans, and came into conflict with their rising neighbours the Samnites. I’m sure you can guess who won that tussle. After consolidating Italy, Rome had proven it’s excellence in trade and war. These two fields were mastered by Carthage, a historically Phoenician city in north Africa just across the sea that inherited their forebear’s specialities, which were also trade and warfare. A new, all-consuming clash of the titans was inevitable, known today as the Second Punic War. I’m sure you can guess who won.
After later military conquests such as that of Greece and diplomatic soft conquests like Egypt, Rome now dominated the entire Mediterranean. Nobody could threaten their hegemony, only the power of Parthia in the east could oppose their expansion, and the wilds of Gaul and Germania were simply too much effort to conquer. The borders consolidated, so the sights of the political leadership could only turn inwards. What a terrifying prospect it is when expansionist politicians can no longer expand geographically and have to find other ways to keep themselves busy and growing. When they stop looking at the wealth and land of outsiders with bulging eyes, they start noticing the unmolested wealth and land right under their noses, and not even kept behind fortress walls that have to be defeated.
And so, Rome became a stagnant expansionary force, a recipe for disaster. Centralisation exploded as the oligarchs couldn’t take power from foreign rulers and began taking power from the middle class, and most controversially, land. The Gracchi brothers often get overblown by a left-skewed vision of history as being some sort of liberators of the poor. Such a figure is extremely rare in history. Their land reforms sought to curb the monopolisation of land in the oligarchs who had expropriated it through internal conquest. A later figure Marius was more peasant-focused, but specifically in giving land to Roman veteran soldiers - it was, after all, promised to them for service. But the inevitable coming of Caesar was not a populist uprising. It was a counter-elite overthrowing the stagnant artificial elite through a military coup.
The result was that this city who hated kings got a king in everything but name, and loved him. The natural order was returned and a 300 year period of peace and stability began.
The Present
Let’s take the previous paragraphs and change a few names and words:
America was a colony that hated kings on the eastern banks of a tribal continent which grew rapidly in wealth and power initially due to production. They took much of their culture and language from the former dominant power in the world which was in decline, the English, and came into conflict with the native neighbours. I’m sure you can guess who won that tussle. After consolidating coast to coast, America had proven it’s excellence in production and war. These two fields were mastered by the Soviet Union, a socialist megastate spanning Eurasia just across the sea from Alaska and with a satellite state as close as Cuba. A new, proxy-based clash of the titans was inevitable, known today as the Cold War. I’m sure you can guess who won.
After later military conquests such as that of Iraq and a diplomatic soft conquest called NATO, America now dominates the entire world. Nobody can threaten their hegemony, only the power of China in the east can oppose their expansion, and the wilds of Africa are simply too much effort to conquer. The borders have consolidated, so the sights of the political leadership have turned inwards. What a terrifying prospect it is when expansionist politicians can no longer expand geographically and have to find other ways to keep themselves busy and growing. When they stopped looking at the wealth and land of outsiders with bulging eyes, they started noticing the unmolested wealth and land right under their noses, and not even kept behind tank columns that have to be defeated.
And so, America has become a stagnant expansionary force, a recipe for disaster.
Ave Caesar
The political turmoil of our last few years does not represent the fall of the Western Roman Empire circa 450AD, but the transition from the Republic to the Empire. America has rapidly arisen in power and still holds it’s monopoly by a few threads. The grip on these threads is constantly undermined by the self-destructive beauracracy and politics that come with a republican government, where oligarchs rule rather than aristocrats. It took Caesar, a man built for the conquest which made Rome, a man of action and not the word games of lawyers, a lion rather than a fox, to begin the restoration of stability just as the rafters were about to cave in.
Rome rose from the ashes as a phoenix, and America - dragging the whole West along with it - can again. But it’s not a guarantee.
History rhymes rather than repeats. The lessons of the late Roman Republic can teach us a lot about our present, but can’t perfectly predict the future. America - and the West - can rise again, but not through some sort of self-activating computer protocol. It will take action and a lion to overthrow the deep-rooted fox dens. Could this be Trump? That’s a question I find hilarious, given that we saw what he did - or rather didn’t do - for a whole 4 years in the big seat. We saw that the big seat does not have much power on it’s own and that political power rests firmly in the Cathedral, but with some sort of opportunity to grab that power for himself, he completely dropped the ball. He was willing to fight for the cause, but not to the death, so he has been allowed to keep his life in a soft exile with nothing accomplished.
The current buzz in circles astute enough to leave the Trump failure behind are eyeing up Blake Masters, currently winning the campaign for the Arizona representative in the US Senate. We can be very confident that he is /ourguy/, as media pieces are abound describing his verboten (read: likely correct) views on particular historical events whose accepted narratives may not be questioned. He opposes the SCOTUS decision to federally mandate same-sex ‘marriage’, something even the most progressive of libertarians ought to follow suit in, out of recognition that this decentralises the issue to the state level just as overturning Roe did. He’s even dared to point out the obvious and established fact that US gun violence is committed in particular cities and overwhelmingly by a particular demographic. The bravery to say that which is so politically incorrect, but in fact correct, in 2022 on any issue is promising in a potential candidate for Caesar. Most of all though, he has spoken against US government support of Ukraine. Yooj.
Even without all of that, just check the physiognomy:
I caution those who get more than just a tiny bit excited by this prospect, however. Remember my first paragraph: restoration is process, and it’s a much longer one than degeneration. There were many men before Caesar who tried and failed to do what needed to be done. So far we’ve only seen the pathetic flatulent attempt of Trump, we haven’t even gotten to the assassinations stage yet (unless the you think Kennedy brothers were the parallel of the Gracchi brothers, but I for one think the Kennedys were not focused in their goals enough to fit into that frame). And I desperately want the conversation around a new Caesar to remember this most crucial fact: he was killed, and Augustus had to finish what he started. One man, one generation, is not enough to turn the tide.
Trump was perhaps a sign of things to come. Masters is perhaps a sign of things to come, or perhaps could be the thing himself. We cannot know until something is attempted. To write him off as being too irrelevant now would be stupid. The new Caesar will have to rise through the ranks via action just as the old did; we can’t say he’s incapable before any action has even been tried. Or, the parallels could end right this second and America - dragging the West with it - could collapse with no attempts to save it. We can only look back at the state of the Roman Republic and see how Caesar was created out of necessity to save Rome from itself.
He could have failed, and as he was poked full of holes on the Senate floor he probably thought he had. What he started had to be finished, and living history is a very slow ship. We could see the new Caesar coming for 20 years before he does, with another 30 needed to secure what he started. I, in my mid 20s, might never live to see him, even if he does one day return. None of us will know when the die is cast before it is.
Bibliography
Holland, T. (2007). Rubicon: The Last Years of the Roman Republic. United Kingdom: Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group.
Holland, T. (2015). Dynasty: The Rise and Fall of the House of Caesar. United Kingdom: Little, Brown Book Group.
Spengler, O., Atkinson, C. F. (1926). The Decline of the West. United Kingdom: A. A. Knopf.